Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.158191 0.187550 0.222078 0.266012 0.320898 0.387824 4.765628e-01
2025-08-17 0.115626 0.148834 0.192072 0.253551 0.340478 0.461753 6.488269e-01
2025-08-24 0.092862 0.128360 0.178922 0.258510 0.385118 0.587060 9.521312e-01
2025-08-31 0.075903 0.111712 0.166989 0.262585 0.432892 0.743597 1.408146e+00
2025-09-07 0.063530 0.098977 0.157904 0.269350 0.491329 0.956342 2.151190e+00
2025-09-14 0.053826 0.088277 0.149568 0.275685 0.555791 1.231493 3.350853e+00
2025-09-21 0.044875 0.076853 0.137145 0.270739 0.598270 1.501402 4.967441e+00
2025-09-28 0.035020 0.061737 0.114121 0.236274 0.557467 1.534544 5.922609e+00
2025-10-05 0.030795 0.056414 0.109356 0.241743 0.625810 1.974221 9.709045e+00
2025-10-12 0.027842 0.052989 0.107772 0.254970 0.729023 2.681573 1.776136e+01
2025-10-19 0.025023 0.049256 0.104602 0.263414 0.827878 3.552169 3.269786e+01
2025-10-26 0.022651 0.046011 0.101793 0.272313 0.940773 4.748273 6.433040e+01
2025-11-02 0.019883 0.041477 0.095043 0.268070 1.008665 5.940598 1.216059e+02
2025-11-09 0.017231 0.036724 0.086591 0.255166 1.032373 6.976369 2.158575e+02
2025-11-16 0.015614 0.034163 0.083457 0.259889 1.155197 9.417247 5.589263e+02
2025-11-23 0.014191 0.031813 0.080345 0.263761 1.286340 12.760758 1.732457e+03
2025-11-30 0.013027 0.029910 0.078076 0.270370 1.452539 17.921882 7.939718e+03
2025-12-07 0.011997 0.028167 0.075861 0.276571 1.635841 25.449587 6.758520e+04
2025-12-14 0.010861 0.025934 0.071543 0.271475 1.734035 32.864131 1.037790e+06
2025-12-21 0.009303 0.022299 0.061845 0.236808 1.539511 30.578628 2.289764e+06
2025-12-28 0.008678 0.021199 0.060409 0.242215 1.725386 44.167922 NaN
2026-01-04 0.008241 0.020563 0.060420 0.255407 2.027283 71.881391 NaN
2026-01-11 0.007767 0.019737 0.059557 0.263811 2.311525 113.482565 NaN